CNBC, "Significant Correction," Elazar "Still Bullish"
|Who doesn't love CNBC. But they are|
still a little too bearish.
CNBC, We Love You, But People Aren't As Bear-ed Up As You Wrote In That Article
CNBC, we read your report a couple of times. Please show us in that article where it says that the people surveyed expect a "significant correction." We saw one guy in there expecting "a significant correction" but where was that survey. One economist at Moody's ok. Survey of one?
If anything you said, "Half of the group [surveyed] believe the stock market is "too optimistic" about the chances of policy." Ok but that's not expecting an all-out correction.
In fact you said, "On average, the group sees muted gains for the S&P 500, with a rise of just less than 1 percent to 2,493 by year-end."
You responded to that up 1% by saying "Despite such bearish sentiment..."
Bearish is expecting a crash we agree. But expecting up markets isn't so bearish.
CNBC, I think you are still a touch too bearish. Markets are going higher. You've been invited. Shake those bearish blues off and enjoy. It's fun to be a bull.
Bearishness, If Anything Is Unwinding Helping The Stock Market Go Higher
Calling out bearishness when there isn't is a sign that bearish cobwebs are still in the markets.
We pointed out yesterday that the stock market can lift after the FOMC announcement today at 2PM because individual investors are also starting to become less bearish. They aren't yet bullish so there is still much further to go.
We wrote yesterday that when investors slowly become bullish they wait for key catalyst events to pass before they tip-toe into the market. That's why we said that today's no-news Fed meeting can easily be that catalyst for the stock market to go higher.
You May Love Trump, But He's Not The Only Reason This Market's Up
The CNBC report we cited above and its survey participants seemed to think that the market is up on a Trump "bubble."
There are other drivers to stocks besides Trump. (There are?)
One driver: Maybe earnings?
Earnings are the most important driver to stocks and they had their best quarter in almost six years in Q1 (Factset). The second quarter earnings season has just as much potential with a lower US dollar helping multi-nationals and continued global growth.
The other driver: Jobs?
Jobs picked up in the recent non-farm payrolls report. We wrote then that the stock market should move up because of that. The month before had a weak jobs report and stocks went nowhere.
Sure enough the stock market hit new highs soon after that strong jobs report.
President Trump, we love you too but the market medium-or-longer term really really only cares about earnings and jobs.
While we love you President Trump and you're the center of attention we want people to focus on earnings when investing in the stock market. That's what really really matters. Hope you don't mind.
Elazar Wrap It Up For Me: Make Me Some Money
There are still plenty of bears but they are unwinding their skepticism. It's a process. We aren't at euphoric, everyone's in, UBER-cabbie, lawnmower stock picker, peak type stories. The economy and earnings after ten boring years are only just starting to pick up. Consider being more optimistic about the future, it's healthy and fun.
By: Chaim Siegel, Elazar Advisors, LLC, Happy and profitable trading! Mystery question?
The "Elazar Appreciation Day" proposal is hitting Congress for a vote. Make your vote count by sharing this Elazar report today.*
*that was a joke, the part about the vote. The share part was real. Share.
Picture Credit: not a joke.