Potential Stock Market Low Today

july 4 stock market seasonality
We're now the day after July 4th.

We'll keep this short and sweet.

July 4th Stock Market Low

We wrote last Thursday why we thought the market took a spill last week. It may have simply been typical seasonality. The stock market historically sees a low the days before July 4th and generally rises the rest of the year.

Heads-Up It's July 5th

For those who had one long-amazing July 4th weekend, heads-up, we are now one day after July 4th.  If seasonality holds then the stock market should start to strengthen with July 4th out of the way.

Proof From Thursday

HolidayBuy 2 days before,
sell year end
Buy one day before,
sell at year end
President's Day*   -0.1%12.2%
Good Friday  7.3%17.8%
Memorial Day-4.7%22.8%
July 4th13.3%37.3%
Labor Day16.8%33.7%
Election Day   17.9%4.6%
Thanksgiving   4.3%1.1%
New Year's31.1%19.6%
Here's a chart from stockcharts.com.

Look at those July 4th numbers. It doesn't get better than buying one day before July 4th and holding the rest of the year when looking at cumulative results over the last 50 years.

Over time the stock market does (we focus on the S&P 500 Index SPY ETF) well in the first half so traders and investors take profits ahead of July 4th to take the pressure off before they head to the Hamptons. 

It's still ok to be bullish.

By: Chaim Siegel, Elazar Advisors, LLC

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