Monday, April 16, 2018

FANG Stock Index Intro, Tech Earnings Season Preview

We're introducing the FANG Stock Index which we think deserves tracking. Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) matter to investors and helps drive psychology for tech investing in general.

A quick scan of the performance isn't that bad this year. The FANG Stock Index is up 33% year-to-date (YTD) mostly driven by Netflix up 62% and Amazon up 22%. Facebook is down 6.8% YTD and Google is down 1.7%.


FANG Stocks' performance up 33% well outperforms the NASDAQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) up 3.8% and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) down 1%.

So those concerned with tech stock performance we'd say don't worry so much. You're well outperforming.

And that chart above looks fine to me.

Earnings Season Setting Up Well

We wrote to subscribers Friday morning that we thought the S&P 500 was starting to bottom which could help tech stocks in earnings season. We had been waiting for the S&P 500 to stop moving down and break that down trend. By Thursday, Friday that downtrend went away and turned into an uptrend. Just in time for earnings season.

We were bullish for Q3'17 reporting in October. We were less bullish for Q4'17 reporting in January 2018. A market peak formed around that time. But we are bullish for this coming earnings season and expect better guidance for a seasonally stronger Q2 when companies report.

Underlying tech and semiconductor demand is likely strong based on our work speaking to the companies. Mobile, overall is probably still slow but can have a pickup in the back half ahead of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) introducing new iPhones. But we're not there yet.

Conclusion

The macro news has been rough with rate hikes, tariffs, Syria strikes, data privacy issues and US politics. But we're now headed into a fundamental news period. Earnings ultimately drive stocks. Earnings are the main driver to a stock's valuations. We think we're setting up that many more companies will have strong earnings and we're filtering through to decide which ones.

With the stocks down on bad macro news, good fundamental earnings news should be a boost for the stocks and the markets.

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