Elazar was launched in 2004 by Chaim Siegel and has served famous hedge fund clientele who demand a keen understanding of drivers of individual companies and financial markets. Chaim twice worked for renowned trader Steve Cohen of then-SAC Capital (now Point72). He was also a partner at JLF Asset Management which was funded by George Soros. Previously he was one of seven analysts on a $13B mutual fund at Morgan Stanley Asset Management. Elazar Advisors publishes its research into the Reuters/Refinitiv Institutional Platform and Factset where Elazar's earnings estimates are factored into the Street earnings numbers.  Elazar's research is used regularly by fundamental and algorithmic traders and investors at some of the largest mutual fund and hedge fund managers in the world. Chaim has been a 5-Star top ranked analyst in Tesla and other big cap tech companies. Try us with a  free trial here . All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and l

So Far Trade War Touches Tech Less

So far a majority of the products listed by the US and China have been in the agriculture and industrial segments. Officially, the war hasn't centered on tech. Not yet.

Another consideration is much of production for major tech companies happens outside the US and China.

While a trade war would raise prices and potentially slow end demand, so far, tech could get hit less.

US And China Target Ag And Industrial

The lists of goods targeted so far by both countries have mostly been outside of tech (here and here).

Semiconductor Supply And Demand Is Global

China and North America make up about one-fourth of global production.

China and North America make up roughly under one-third of global demand.

It's meaningful but there is the chance that companies can shift production to lower cost regions if a trade war were to break out.

Economy Strong

A trade war would raise prices on goods making it more difficult for consumers to buy. The risk is a trade war slows the economy.

That said the economy has been picking up steam. The Atlanta Fed has been expecting a faster Q2 for US GDP.

There's the chance that a trade war would slow that acceleration but doesn't necessarily mean we fall into a recession based on that underlying strength.

We're Still In Negotiation Mode

Both sides (China and the US) are positioning but also racing to come to an agreement. A trade war would hurt everybody and nobody wants it. The louder we hear the crossfire the more it likely means they are desperate to negotiate.

Tech Accelerating

We've shown that revenues of major tech companies are accelerating (here and here). Based on our work we think that continues this quarter.

Capex spend by hyperscalers, which is a huge tech driver has also been accelerating.

The backdrop for tech is very strong so if the trade war is muted against tech or settled we think tech has some big upside.

Q2 Same Thing

We're bullish.  Based on our work speaking to many companies we feel Q2 can continue to see revenue acceleration which would drive earnings leverage.

If correct you have a big fundamental reason holding up stocks against trade war scares.


All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and long term. The information provided is for information purposes only and can be wrong. By reading this you agree, understand and accept that you take upon yourself all responsibility for all of your investment decisions and to do your own work and hold Elazar Advisors, LLC, and their related parties harmless.

We have no positions in the securities mentioned.

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