Stock Market: Siegel Says Second Half Risk

Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel, no relation to Elazar Advisor's Chaim Siegel (that we know of) said today that the second half stock market has some risks.

By the way we think that he's generally been spot on.

2019 S&P 500 Estimates Too High

Siegel pointed out in a Bloomberg interview that S&P 500 estimates are too high for 2019. 2018 earnings benefited from the one-time tax cut benefits that won't see the same lift to 2019 earnings.

Siegel said "guidance is going to be a little more challenging" as we report Q3 numbers and companies start to give their 2019 outlook. We're not there yet but it's coming.

That in combination with more Fed rate hikes, Siegel says, can "keep a lid on prices" for the stock market in the second half.

Trade War 10% Pop?

He did say that "earnings are blow out" and that if we get trade war resolution you'll get a "pop 10%" in stocks.

Earnings Starting To Report: Watching Reactions

We're still very bullish on earnings for tech stocks which are starting to report. We're also paying attention to how stocks react to earnings reports. Reactions have been mixed.

We want to see if great reports are turning into a sell the news as managers sell protecting gains ahead of trade war risk.

Hitting Tech Stock Earnings Home Runs

We spoke to the top tech companies over the last few months to identify what tech stocks have home run earnings potential. Earnings are what drives stocks, especially tech stocks. Finding those few tech stocks that have realistic earnings trajectories way above the Street can give you conviction to see a stock through to big upside. Dip your toe in the water with a free trial.

We're about to hit our prime time, earnings season.

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We have no holdings in the stocks mentioned unless otherwise noted.

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