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Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Stock Market: Siegel Says Second Half Risk

Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel, no relation to Elazar Advisor's Chaim Siegel (that we know of) said today that the second half stock market has some risks.

By the way we think that he's generally been spot on.

2019 S&P 500 Estimates Too High

Siegel pointed out in a Bloomberg interview that S&P 500 estimates are too high for 2019. 2018 earnings benefited from the one-time tax cut benefits that won't see the same lift to 2019 earnings.

Siegel said "guidance is going to be a little more challenging" as we report Q3 numbers and companies start to give their 2019 outlook. We're not there yet but it's coming.

That in combination with more Fed rate hikes, Siegel says, can "keep a lid on prices" for the stock market in the second half.

Trade War 10% Pop?

He did say that "earnings are blow out" and that if we get trade war resolution you'll get a "pop 10%" in stocks.

Earnings Starting To Report: Watching Reactions

We're still very bullish on earnings for tech stocks which are starting to report. We're also paying attention to how stocks react to earnings reports. Reactions have been mixed.

We want to see if great reports are turning into a sell the news as managers sell protecting gains ahead of trade war risk.

Hitting Tech Stock Earnings Home Runs

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We're about to hit our prime time, earnings season.

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3 comments:

  1. Chaim,
    If Lizzie Warren can claim to be Native American without proof, you can claim to be related to Professor Siegal. Full disclosure: My wife is Inca- Quechua, which is what Incas were. That makes my daughter 50% Inca and my 2 grandsons 25% Inca.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Chaim,
    Trade deal made with EU to eliminate tariffs. And they said it could not be done. My pipeline stocks are up $3K today. Must be because market is WAY forward looking, as we lack the LNG capacity to ship much to the EU now. Lots more infrastructure required. Good deal for soybean farmers who lost their China market. Also, good for auto makers and even Harley. A very good day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We might be related. Siegel is spelled a few different ways and we happen to spell it the same. Plus he tells me to not publicly disclose that we're related so dont tell anybody (kidding). glad you're having good days.

      Delete

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