Elazar was launched in 2004 by Chaim Siegel and has served famous hedge fund clientele who demand a keen understanding of drivers of individual companies and financial markets. Chaim twice worked for renowned trader Steve Cohen of then-SAC Capital (now Point72). He was also a partner at JLF Asset Management which was funded by George Soros. Previously he was one of seven analysts on a $13B mutual fund at Morgan Stanley Asset Management. Elazar Advisors publishes its research into the Reuters/Refinitiv Institutional Platform and Factset where Elazar's earnings estimates are factored into the Street earnings numbers.  Elazar's research is used regularly by fundamental and algorithmic traders and investors at some of the largest mutual fund and hedge fund managers in the world. Chaim has been a 5-Star top ranked analyst in Tesla and other big cap tech companies. Try us with a  free trial here . All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and l

Tesla: Production Even Close To Estimates, Huge For Earnings

It was reported by Electrek that Tesla is apparently on track with their Model 3 quarterly ramp but below their 6,000 / week target.

The ramp is just so big that small misses don't really matter. Worrying about such precise measurements misses the big picture.

Tesla even coming close to their targets means that Q3 deliveries would jump about 90% from Q2. If they continue this pace deliveries will be up 3X by Q2 next year from this year's Q2.

Being high or low from those weekly, monthly, or quarterly targets misses the point.

...And Really Misses The Point For Earnings

What's most exciting about the story is of course earnings. Earnings are what drives stock prices.

Any data that expects Tesla comes anywhere close to their production or delivery targets means huge things for earnings.

Analysts were in shock on Q2 as S&X gross margins jumped from Q1. They were up anywhere from 500-1000 basis points from Q1 to Q2.


CEO Elon Musk said, "as we improve efficiency, then gross margin and so the profitability per car just improves dramatically."

Well you saw that in Q2.

What happens to gross margins if deliveries even come close to being up 90% in Q3 from Q2?

What's going to happen to gross margins when deliveries are up 3-fold by Q2 next year?

We think gross margins are going to jump.

Shorts Missing The Forest For The Trees

Even with all the communication blunders or smart short stories out there, they all get erased as production ramps 90% sequentially and 3-fold year-over-year.

Remember, "as we improve efficiency, then gross margin and so the profitability per car just improves dramatically."

That's now.

Q2 deliveries were up 36% sequentially and gross margins jumped. So for Q3 if deliveries are up 90% sequentially what's going to happen to gross margins? Look out.


We're speaking to Cadence, NVIDIA and Cirrus this week as well as covering the Citi tech conference. Join Us.

Looking For Tech Earnings Home Runs

We spoke to the top tech companies over the last few months to identify what tech stocks have home run earnings potential. Earnings are what drives stocks, especially tech stocks. Finding those few tech stocks that have realistic earnings trajectories way above the Street can give you conviction to see a stock through to big upside. Dip your toe in the water with a free trial.


All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and long term. The information provided is for information purposes only and can be wrong. By reading this you agree, understand and accept that you take upon yourself all responsibility for all of your investment decisions and to do your own work and hold Elazar Advisors, LLC, and their related parties harmless.

We have no holdings in the stocks mentioned unless otherwise noted.

Correction: added the word "sequentially" Sept 3, 2018, 9:57 AM EDT

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