Timely Citi Tech Stock Conference Starts Tomorrow

We'll be covering the Citi tech conference tomorrow. My take on tech is that generally it sounds like it's trying to bottom fundamentally, especially in the semiconductor space. That said there's too much fundamental headwind risk from the never-ending trade war.

The Hong Kong protests also add another major wrinkle in the US and China negotiating a deal. We did see that Carrie Lam of Hong Kong said that the Chinese government will not be sending in troops but we can never know. That sounds like a positive that maybe they are warming to a trade deal. Using force would likely end trade talks. Holding off troops means they may actually want a deal.

I've been under the assumption though that China would rather wait to see who's president in 2020-2021 and string along current talks with no resolution. The longer that happens, that stringing along, the more the economy can slow which risks earnings and stocks.

We'll be listening at the Citi Tech conference for signs if trends are getting better or worse. Q3 is a big tech quarter so this matters. I think trends are getting better but then you heard companies like Cisco blame a 3% China business for a guidance miss. There's companies out there with much more than 3% exposure to China that would have risk.

So we're listening for that balance between a cycle bottom versus a new potential negative leg to trade war headwinds.

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