Stock Market's Next Move: Middle East Or Fed Pump
|Iran - US Conflict Impact|
I see a lot of stocks starting to turn down. The market's had a huge huge run. I want to see how action works out.
Oil up is an inflationary risk. It's negative for the economy. If there's a Middle-East problem now this also can affect global business and profits. I don't think this should be taken for granted. So in the meantime I want to be hedged and let the market tell us what it wants to do, up or down.
As you know we've been calling for a big short term run for a little while now (here here here). So until I see the market moving up off of this Iran news I want to play it safe.
My bias is now for a short term pullback but as I just said I want to see what the market wants to do.
I did see the Fed in buying on Friday. That's some cushion.
Earnings season starts in a little over a week. Buckle up.
Depending on the macro, investors may be a taking earnings as a sell the news. I'm not sure. Before this Iran issue, I believe investors wanted to get bullish, revving up for a trade truce and Fed doves.
Now I'm not so sure.
I think there's a chance good results may get sold. Good results should go up may but get sold into. That can reduce the risk/reward benefit profile. It depends how bad the Middle East gets and how good earnings are of course over the next couple of weeks. I'm bullish on earnings but now after the run and the latest change of news negative we'll have to watch. I want to see the first few reports to see how action plays out.
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