This was posted to subscribers today:
Fed Tomorrow
Fed Chair Powell speaks to Congress tomorrow. I think he's going to be bearish for markets. I pointed out yesterday I considered comments in the media a leak from the Fed that they need to "accelerate" rate hikes even in the face of war. War reaction is further causing oil to rise which is hurting the Fed's inflation position and they need to get more aggressive. Getting more aggressive at such a risk period I think is a recipe for crash.
I don't think it's happening right here and now because the Fed's still in there buying for their balance sheet. But that ends this month and I think earlier this month. So that support will be gone. That support I think is giving false 'action' signals to bulls to buy dips. Market doesn't act terrible and I think because the Fed's still in there.
I think the next market move is important.
I pointed out a few weeks ago we were about to break. It broke. I pointed out that there was oversold bounce potential last week. It did that. Yesterday I wanted to get short.
We're now down.
I still think down but the next market move tomorrow / Thursday I think is very important to predict follow on. So let's watch. Direction is down so my bias is down but the next two days action is critical for the next week or two follow through prediction.
Tech
In tech a company AMBA preannounced saying Samsung is tightening their supply. Stock was down big. I think that may have affected semis. But really I think semis were all about to break out. People saw and positioned for that and disappointed had to sell in unison.
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