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China’s Rare Earth Gambit ♞: Give Up Taiwan or Lose Rare Earths
Keywords: China rare earth export controls, US Taiwan defense funding, TSMC, semiconductor security, critical minerals, trade war On October 7, 2025 , China tightened its controls on exports of rare earth minerals just two days before the U.S. confirmed to give more money to help Taiwan’s military defense . The timing was likely not a coincidence. China views Taiwan as its own territory, so U.S. military support is a major red flag for Beijing. China appears to be using it
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3 days ago3 min read


Is a Negative NFP Report Lurking? Why the Next Jobs Number Could Shock Markets 📉
Bar chart illustrating a declining non-farm payroll trend from September to August, highlighted by a decreasing yellow trend line, indicating significant drops during certain months. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is arguably the most critical economic release each month, and recent trends suggest the next one could deliver a nasty shock. As the US labor market shows increasing signs of strain, a historically significant negative NFP reading—a net loss of jobs —is a grow
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7 days ago3 min read


Inflation Jumpy, Tariffs Impact CPI & PPI: What It Means for Fed Rate Cut Expectations
Markets have been quick to price in three Fed rate cuts for this year and another three for next year, largely based on last Friday's...
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Sep 73 min read


Navigating the Crypto Market: Why MSTR Could Be the Key to Understanding Bitcoin's Next Move
Bitcoins Is the 'Tail' Wagging the 'Dog'? In the world of investing, there's an old saying about the tail wagging the dog. In this case,...
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Aug 312 min read


The Most Disappointing Rate Cut Ever
Interest Rate Balloon Fed Chair Jerome Powell floated a rate cut on Friday . Markets and President Trump have been long waiting for that...
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Aug 252 min read


Euro Versus Dollar At Key Level
US Dollar The US Dollar versus the Euro is sitting right at a key level. A topside break of 1.17 Euro-USD would mean there's medium term...
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Aug 172 min read


Tesla: Risk To Earnings And Stock
Tesla Our earnings for 2026 are way below the Street now based on recent results. Unless they magically figure out FSD and Robotaxis we...
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Jul 242 min read


Crude Oil Key Level 80
Crude Oil Prices Moving Up Oil prices have bounced on Middle East Conflict. On June 12th at 4:15 PM EDT, a few hours before the Middle...
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Jun 152 min read


Bonds And TLT Risk
Bonds have been dropping for a few years and started another decline in September of last year. I posted recently that a Fed rate cut...
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May 222 min read


If Trump Gets A Fed Cut, Can Actually Cause A Further Stock Market Crash
As you know I'm focused on bonds and TLT as a key driver to markets . TLT just dropped below a key short term level 87. TLT down means...
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Apr 212 min read


Navigating Markets
We downgraded markets to fundamentally Bearish to subscribers a few days before this giant drop started, a little over a month ago. We...
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Mar 272 min read


Trading Conviction And Sizing: Chat On Becoming A Successful Trader
I wanted to share what I thought was an important discussion we had in chat today on a stock that I got bearish on. Here's how the...
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Mar 53 min read


Some Inflation & Fed Risk But..
Wanted to share some of our comments we had for subscribers today. CPI jumped today. Topline CPI looked worse ( here ). Core also looks...
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Feb 122 min read


AI Ultimately Hits The Stock Market?
AI is generally seen as a bullish positive for the market. But so far even though AI has been strong, the global economy hasn't been so...
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Jan 222 min read


Fed and the Stock Market: Learn How To Read The Fed To Why It Matters for Your Investments
The Federal Reserve ("The Fed") of the United States is a main, if not the most important driver to changes in stock prices. They have...
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Nov 18, 202414 min read


Stock Market Leaning Ahead Of CPI?
I've been mostly bullish this year. Lately, I've been saying to subscribers I have a building concern if May 15th is not a low CPI print...
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May 8, 20242 min read


Tesla's Latest Price Moves: Still Risk
I've been pointing out risk in Tesla (here and here and here). TSLA's going to $99 per month for FSD from $199. It means to me they are...
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Apr 14, 20242 min read


Tesla: What's Most Concerning...
We've been calling out risk in Tesla over the recent medium term and this year. Bad Tesla Print They reported a bad delivery number. I...
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Apr 3, 20243 min read


Bitcoin: Shorting MicroStrategy?
If you've been following us we've been bullish on Bitcoin throughout 2023 and 2024 when it was going up. That's after having been bearish...
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Mar 28, 20243 min read


Nvidia: Still Much More To Go
The last time we published publicly on Nvidia last May we predicted "Nvidia is ready to be the stock market's AI darling." Read what we...
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Mar 19, 20243 min read
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