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Stock Market Bounce To Month End, Then...

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Here's some of the notes we told subscribers today. While we've been sharing this weekly publicly, subscribers receive this and other reports intraday & daily on tech, trading and markets including our world ranked stock picks, timing calls and live chat. To see our full comments along with specific stock picks click here.

Stock Market

The market had a huge bounce in the last four days up 16% on the $SPY from the low. I do think there's some follow through potential technically.

I would guess that follow through can continue into month/quarter end on Tuesday as people want to chase.

But here's the case count of the number of people affected so far.


WWNew casesdaily %incr
USNew casesdaily %incr03/28/206631276676111%
1235781945219%03/27/205963666450112%
1041261869122%03/26/205318656083013%
854351722425%03/25/20471035323187%
682111241022%03/24/204387176021716%
558011206728%
Case growth slowed a touch. But the numbers are big and probably bigger than reported.

Italy is still i…

Potential Bounce But Then Down to SPY 200

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Here's some of the notes we told subscribers today. While we've been sharing this weekly publicly, subscriber receive this and other reports intraday & daily on tech, trading and markets including our world ranked stock picks, timing calls and live chat. To see our full comments along with specific daily stock picks click here.

Quick Review

The last two weeks each Sunday we called for new stock market lows (here and here). Three weeks ago we called for a bounce and got one. On February 23rd we called a key level that ended up being the initial break of this bear market drop.

Stock Market: What Now?

I think that this straight line down can continue until 200 SPY. It can get there or near-by at week's end at this pace. If that's correct it means short rallies to 235-240.

Jobless claims jumped on Thursday. This week they should jump again. That tells you we are currently in the recession.

Why is the market down 30%? Because jobless claims just jumped 40%. The market pre…

Looking For A New Stock Market Low

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Here's some of the notes we told subscribers today. While we've been sharing this weekly publicly, subscriber receive this and other reports intraday & daily on tech, trading and markets including our world ranked stock picks, timing calls and live chat. To see our full comments along with specific daily stock picks click here.

Oh my so much to talk about.

Fed cut rates again to 0% tonight, Sunday. That's ahead of their Wednesday meeting.

First, an Exercise (That Can Help For A Lifetime Of Trading)

Let's do an important exercise. This exercise is going to help you for the rest of your trading career.

Close your eyes.

I'm going to tell you something and you tell me the image (market direction) you have in your mind.

The Fed cuts rates to zero percent and adds $700B in quantitative easing. What market direction comes to your mind?

Up right? No way futures are limit down, right?

Nope.

This is the art of trading action.

If you think news should get something in one …

Stock Market Ready To Go Lower Again

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Here's some of the notes we told subscribers today. While we've been sharing this weekly publicly, subscriber receive this and other reports intraday & daily on tech, trading and markets including our world ranked stock picks, timing calls and live chat. To see our full comments along with specific daily stock picks click here.



Quick Recap

If you read our weekly updates you saw that we called out an important break two weeks ago.  Last week, Sunday we called for a near term bounce which saw the market up big on Monday. But we said we thought downside after.

I thought sideways last week because I thought two weeks ago was down too fast and oversold and needed to go sideways. Now that market condition has worked its way out. Last week went sideways and I think we're ready to head back down again.

What's Next For Stock Market

Markets ripped up and down 3% last week. Smooth is bullish, whippy is bearish. Last week was clearly whippy.

So many investors, traders and algos …

Potential Short Term Bounce But Further Risk After

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Here's some of the notes we told subscribers today. While we've been sharing this weekly publicly, subscribers receive this and other reports daily on tech, trading and markets including our world ranked stock picks, timing calls and live chat. To see our full comments along with specific daily stock picks click here

Results

Before I go into my thoughts on markets I wanted to cover our recent results.

The chart above were the results of our model portfolio since inception. We were up last month while the market was down.

You see that we missed the wild swings of the market. We are also averaging under 20% net market exposure.

If someone had 20% of the market exposure they should perform 1/5 as well. We are keeping pace with the market having less risk on the sheets.

We are also doing that with well under 100% invested. We're normally closer to 50% invested.
If you take the two numbers together and see we are keeping pace with the market without the big drawdowns, you can …

Stock Market Teetering Near Key Level

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Here's some of the notes we told subscribers today. They receive this and other reports daily on tech, trading and markets including our world ranked stock picks and timing calls. To see our full comments along with specific daily stock picks click here.

I generally don't like buying weakness. I like buying strength. It keeps everybody in business and keeps performance numbers steady. When I see things turn up I'll be happy to add to our model portfolio but for now things are weakening and I prefer to be safe.

We saw the Fed buy less last week which takes some support from the market. We'll have to see how that develops each day this week.

The China outbreak spread seems to be lessening but media reports around the world are spooking markets. I want to respect markets... always, which is why I'd prefer to pull back a little. But when the market dust clears I want to be buying.

Apple $AAPL preannounced negative and fear is that more tech will be weak. My concern on …

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