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SPY ETF: Uh Oh, Jobs

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Jobless claims seem to be moving back up. Jobs are probably the most important economic datapoint for stocks.

That chart to the left means more people are out of work. That's not something you hear about in a bull market. It's a change.

If the S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) breaks 273, I think we're headed to 270.

I hated yesterday's weak close too. I don't like today's whippiness either.  Something may be changing out there.

After a huge run and some market dynamics in motion, we advised to hedge out.

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SPY ETF Holding 274, Going To 280

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If the S&P 500 ETF SPY (NYSEARCA:SPY) holds above 274 we think it's headed to 280, the next level of key support/resistance.

So far we called that the market should go higher each step holding above 265, 270, and now 274. After 274 we don't see a key level until 280.

I would guess the market can get excited for the potential of a month end trade deal. That can help us get to 280 first stop and then we'll assess from there.

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"Chaim, You have called it better than anyone I know over the last few months."

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SPY ETF: Next Stop 276

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We've been bullish saying that the S&P 500 ETF SPY (NYSEARCA:SPY) holding 270 was positive.

The action today on news is also very bullish.

Based on the chart and the strong bullish action we'd expect follow through nearer term to 276.



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Here's what subscribers are saying,

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"Chaim, You have called it better than anyone I know over the last few months."

"great work Chaim! rock star ur a rock star!”

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All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and long term. The information provided is for information purposes only and can be wrong. By reading this you agree, understand and accept that you take upon yourself all respon…

SPY ETF Gameplan This Month

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The US and China are meeting this week to hopefully iron out a trade deal. There's a chance that Trump and Xi could finalize plans later this month.

Here's The Gameplan

For now the market has thrown off some short term excess so it looks ready to continue its uptrend.

It's not super clear but the slow action likely means there's upside.

Based on the slow action right now, my guess is that the market should probably hold or continue higher into the end of the month in hopes of a trade deal. Then if/when there's a trade deal later in the month we expect a pop.

From there we need to watch action.  If the market follows through in the days to follow or even holds up the next day or two it can go higher.

If you see the market doesn't pop on good news or goes down then you have a big market short building; good news - bad action. That would be an early sign of "sell the news."

There's no way to precisely predict the moves but we can watch how the market …

SPY ETF: 270 Holding

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When our 270 S&P 500 ETF SPY (NYSEARCA:SPY) level was broken last week we wanted to see how the market responded.

A sharp break would have been a hint for further downside.

After seeing the market hold 270 nicely though I no longer expect sharp downside.

The market's still in an uptrend until proven otherwise.

While there was some negative commentary about Trump and Xi being far apart on trade, the market actually digested that news rather nicely. That's a good sign of bad news, good action and a bullish hint.

Tech Stock Buys

We're speaking to numerous tech companies every quarter and helping our subscribers time and size the stocks and stock market.

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Here's what subscribers are saying,

"The market is flat for this year and I am up over 50% in my account, thanks to Chaim!"

"Chaim, You have called it better than anyone I know over the last few months."

"great work Chaim! rock star ur a rock star!”

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Apple: Services Slowing

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Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Services have been a touch slower the last couple of quarters. The company said it was due partly to an accounting change and FX.

As we go into the next few quarters there's risk that services can continue to slow for the above reasons but also because of more difficult year-ago comparisons.

I'll explain.

As we know growth rates depend on how well a company is doing this year. But growth rates also, of course, depend on the base number a year ago. That base number is used to calculate this year's growth rate.

When that year-ago number is higher it makes the current year's growth rate lower.

Let's see what Apple Services is up against versus last year as we go into the next couple of quarters.

Fiscal201820182018201820192019Calendar201720182018201820182019
DecMarJunSeptDecMar
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2EServices8471919095489981100809796Growth18.1%30.5%31.4%17.4%19.0%6.6%2 Yr Gr36.5%48.0%53.0%51.8%37.1%37.1%
The December quarter grew 19% on top of a year ago quarte…

Apple: Still Earnings Risk

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Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): had a negative preannouncement for the December quarter ahead of officially reporting. We had been below the Street ahead of that. Our earnings remain below the Street for several quarters.

Apple talked about a pick up in January due to deciding to discount phone prices in China. China and emerging markets had been a reason for weakness.

The rising dollar forced Apple first to raise prices so as not to have a revenue hit. But rising prices hurt demand so in January they benefited from reducing prices.

But look what it does to margins.


MarJunSeptDecMar
Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2EFiscal20182018201820192019Calendar20182018201820182019Gross Margins23422.020421.024084.032031.021375.0Gross Margins38.3%38.3%38.3%38.0%37.5%bp chg-0.64%-0.17%0.38%-0.42%-0.81%2yr%-1.09%0.31%0.26%-0.52%-1.45%
We like looking at the 2-year run-rate. That adds up this year's quarter with last year's same quarter. The 2-year gross margin trend drops from -.52% to -1.45% based on their gross margin guida…

SPY ETF: Stops Hit

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We had been saying that we had tight stops. We used 270 S&P 500 SPY ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) as our level and it was hit today. There is probably follow through downside to the market now.

We said the market was extended but wanted the market to help us decide what it wants to do. Did it want to keep rising or break?

That it broke our key level we think it's saying there's risk to the downside now.


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We're speaking to numerous tech companies every quarter and helping our subscribers time and size the stocks and stock market.

Try with a 14 day free trial, Click here.

Here's what subscribers are saying,

"The market is flat for this year and I am up over 50% in my account, thanks to Chaim!"

"Chaim, You have called it better than anyone I know over the last few months."

"great work Chaim! rock star ur a rock star!”

Try with a 14 day free trial, Click here.



All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and long term. Th…

SPY ETF: But, But, But, Slow Market, Bull Market

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The S&P 500 ETF SPY (NYSEARCA:SPY) is moving very slow lately. Fast or volatile markets are usually bear markets, like you remember in November and December.

But slow markets are usually bull markets.

This slow tight action is something that requires extreme patience but the market's moving up, so let it go.

But, But, But...

But, but, but it's extended, stretched, has to pull back, right? Yup. I think so too. But as I said yesterday I want to give this market room to keep rising with nearby stops.

Really, Really

You want my really, really? My really really means, ok all the article fluff, market going up, tight ranges, slow, extended, yadda, yadda, right?

Now it's time for my really really.

Really, really, I think this market is about 5-10 days from absolutely exploding to the upside. Tell me that doesn't make you smile. Tell me.

I think Trump will sign anything he can with Xi, do a victory lap and then the market can accelerate on the upside after that.  The market…

SPY ETF: Slight Change

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The S&P 500 ETF SPY (NYSEARCA:SPY) is still moving up. We called out that a close above 265 then 270 was bullish.

We have a slight change.

Short term the market looks a little extended to the upside which can mean there's risk at any point. We'd raise stops a little closer to the market maybe within 1-2%.

But really really I think the market can digest this big move over the next one or two weeks and then potentially climb for another month.

While earnings were very mediocre at best, strong jobs, low inflation and a Fed on hold is helping the market. Plus, remember, at the end of the month Trump meets Xi. Hopefully we get any sort of deal that will stop tariffs. No tariffs will be a big plus for the market.

So even though the market's extended we're not ready to hedge or reverse unless the market breaks saying it wants to go lower.

For now though, we'll let it keep doing what it's doing.

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S&P 500 Close Above 270, Another Bullish Confirmation

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We pointed out recently (here and here) that an S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) close above 265 would be confirmation of follow through.

The next chart point is 270, where we are today (see chart below).

You have a mini-goldilocks scenario right now with strong jobs reported on Friday, low inflation, and a Fed who put a hard stop on rate hikes.  (14 Day Free Trial; Click here).

Given that the economy is doing fine and the stock market is well off its highs, there's room for further lift.

Here's the chart below. A close above SPY 270 is a bullish confirmation.


Tech Stock Buys

We're speaking to numerous tech companies every quarter and helping our subscribers time and size the stocks and stock market.

Try with a 14 day free trial, Click here.

Here's what subscribers are saying,

"The market is flat for this year and I am up over 50% in my account, thanks to Chaim!"

"Chaim, You have called it better than anyone I know over the last few months."

"great w…

AMD Guide Too Low?

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AMD's (NASDAQ:AMD) guide for Q1 and 2019 looks too conservative. We've correctly believed for a long time that AMD's guidance was not conservative but looking at the underlying trends this time, there looks like upside.

Let's take a look.

Here's the company's one and two year revenue growth trends. This is where we usually find clues in underlying trends. The two-year trend adds this year's growth to last year's same quarter growth. That way you smooth out one-timers to catch an underlying trend.


201820182019
Q3Q4Q1

AETotal Revenues165314191250YOY4.36%5.90%-24.10%2yr25.27%27.71%15.71%
The 2-year revenue trend in both Q3 and Q4 was around 26%. Their guide assumes a huge drop-off in Q1 to a 16% two-year trend. Yes crypto peaked as a percent of revenues for AMD in Q1 last year but that should make for a lower one-year growth rate in Q1. If you think about the math crypto shouldn't hurt your Q1 2-year growth rate. So it looks conservative.

Let's Look A…

S&P 500: Broke Above Our 265

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We called out yesterday the S&P 500 SPY ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) having a key level of 265. Breaking above it is bullish and can follow through.

This is what we said yesterday,

"Whatever happens we need the market to guide us. We think the two key levels are 265 and 261 for the S&P 500 ETF SPY. Closing above 265 and we'd expect the market can continue to have follow through to the upside. Not doing it and it's worth being patient."

A little after 12 EDT yesterday on chat we recommended to start buying ahead of the Fed when we saw the market was already comfortably above 265. We felt it could hold higher by the close.

And we're seeing the follow through today.

I think this follow-through today can last a week or two potentially. The market could also get excited about the coming trade war resolution meeting coming towards month's end.

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S&P 500: Gameplan For The Fed Today

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The Fed meets today at 2 EDT. If you look at the S&P 500 chart (NYSEARCA:SPY) you see that the last three meetings didn't go so well. All three meetings helped the market see big drops.

The Fed needs to get this meeting right.

Two keys investors care about, rates and asset purchases. Whispers have come out that the Fed may ease up their asset reductions and may halt further rate hikes. That can help the market.

In previous meetings though, to the market's dismay Jerome Powell claimed more hikes were needed.

Whatever happens we need the market to guide us. We think the two key levels are 265 and 261 for the S&P 500 ETF SPY. Closing above 265 and we'd expect the market can continue to have follow through to the upside. Not doing it and it's worth it to be patient.

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Tesla Earnings Red Flags

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reports earnings Wednesday after the close. They already guided below the Street for Q4 but we think there's material risk in Q1.

The reduced tax credit can slow demand in Q1. If demand was already weaker than expected, reducing the tax credit can be a further drag in Q1.

Add to that Europe and China don't ramp until at earliest later in the quarter. So, as of their speaking to the Street on Wednesday, Tesla management will likely have limited visibility.

To give you an idea of the slowdown listen to what they said in their preannouncement January 18th,

"However, starting around May, we will need to deliver at least the mid-range Model 3 variant in all markets, as we need to reach more customers who can afford our vehicles."

When they say they need to reach "customers who can afford our vehicles" they are likely referring to the drop in the tax credit hitting demand. Also, lower priced cars will drive lower margins hitting earnings this…

Nvida, Intel Big Misses, AMD? Micron?

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Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) had a big big miss today. Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) guide down last week was also huge but we wrote, "not conservative enough."

Both Nvidia and Intel called out datacenter slowing. As we know that's huge for tech. Datacenter and hyperscalers had been a key driver for much of the food chain in tech. That can't be ignored.

We had called out to subscribers that there was risk for Nvidia and Intel earnings.

As for AMD...

AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) reports after the close Tuesday. I don't expect them to have such a big whiff though because they are in ramp up mode. Still, Rome doesn't really ramp until the 2nd half so anything's possible in the meantime.

Our estimates for AMD are smack inline with the Street. The Street has been moving down to us. The risk reward either way is not clear for AMD.

Putting it all together, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Intel and now Nvidia are huge tech movers. They are huge memory buyers. Everybody's been looking for a bot…

S&P 500: What Will Break This Market?

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The S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) has been moving up nicely through January.

What can break this market?

If the SPY ETF were to hold below 260 or 261 that would probably crack this market.

What could do it? At the moment the market is reacting positively to earnings news. Bad news is good for stocks, good news is good for stocks.  Investors have grabbed any piece of good news to buy stocks.

Can it last? Fundamentals haven't really improved so we still might be in a bounce from an over-correction from a Q3-Q4 earnings slowdown. Investors are probably buying hoping for a 2nd half pickup. If the trade war gets resolved, great. If not you probably don't get that 2nd half pickup.

In the meantime we should respect the market.

There were a few moves in the last week that started down, tested 261 but held. So until proven otherwise we're still moving up. But a break of 260-261 would signal a change of direction after a nice move.

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Intel's 2019 Guide Not Conservative

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Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) missed on revenues and guided below the Street for Q1. The guide assumes no growth for revenues.

The issue is in their 2019 guide. It's not conservative. Their 2019 guide calls for flattish growth but if you know quarterly models you have to look at the year-ago comparisons.

The year ago quarters got stronger through 2018 meaning to say flat through 2019 will get harder.

If Intel is already seeing a slowdown in Q1 it's going to be tougher to maintain that flattish growth through the year which can make their just released estimates too high.

Intel's datacenter slowing from 25% to 9% in one quarter could have negative implications for Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) that was already slowing in datacenter and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) who needs to do well in datacenter later in the year. If hyperscalers are slowing it's not good for tech.

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Amazing Stock Action On Earnings But...

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We've seen some amazing action on earnings. Good earnings news is good news for stocks yet bad news is good news.  This type of action has to be noticed.

Investors are looking through some bad news.

The issue though is if this trade war gets extended as Secretary Wilbur Ross acknowledged today. The major reason for the tech slowdown is CEOs waiting for trade resolution. If that resolution gets pushed out we have further fundamental risk.

In the meantime the market is still pointing up short term. We're thinking that there's some near term risk but dips the last couple of days have been purchased showing some support.

We'll take it step by step.

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All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and long term. The information provided is for information purposes only and can be wrong. By reading this you agree, understand and accept that you take upon yourself all responsibility for all of your investment decision…

SPY Risk On Tech Earnings Season

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If the S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) index breaks 274, or worse, closes below 274 we're most likely making further near term lows.

This is a risky time where many are looking for a low but the market has not proven to reverse trend.

We've been telling subscribers for a month or two that we've been cautious on the market.  We either need a washout or a change in trend higher but so far have had neither so we think more risk ahead.

Because of that we've been taking more of a wait-and-see for tech earnings season rather than getting aggressive ahead of earnings reports.

With China tariff issues, dollar and rate issues we'd prefer to react to great reports than carry much risk in this time.

$SPY #stockmarket

Looking For Tech Earnings Home Runs

We spoke to the top tech companies over the last few months to identify what tech stocks have home run earnings potential. Earnings are what drives stocks, especially tech stocks. Finding those few tech stocks that have realisti…