Stock Market: What We're Watching With $SPY
Short term, there's plenty to lean on this stock market. As you know I've been short term bearish but the downside risk/reward shorter term is not as good after this recent move. There can easily be a bounce but a shorter term bounce.
Medium term though the break of 289-290 in the $SPY is a risky medium term break. If it doesn't crawl back above it, to me it's more confirmation of downside.
You have a few things weighing on markets and one main thing supporting markets.
Weighing on markets is President Trump's tough talk on China ahead of their Oct 10th meeting, Impeachment talk, and last week's PCE Price which ticked up to 1.8% closer to the Fed's 2% target. That can mean fewer rate cuts which the market is not yet pricing in.
Supporting markets, and this is so key to watch are yields. Yields hanging in there and not jumping makes you not want to be aggressive short when markets trade off into near-term support. But at some point I think yields can break …
Medium term though the break of 289-290 in the $SPY is a risky medium term break. If it doesn't crawl back above it, to me it's more confirmation of downside.
You have a few things weighing on markets and one main thing supporting markets.
Weighing on markets is President Trump's tough talk on China ahead of their Oct 10th meeting, Impeachment talk, and last week's PCE Price which ticked up to 1.8% closer to the Fed's 2% target. That can mean fewer rate cuts which the market is not yet pricing in.
Supporting markets, and this is so key to watch are yields. Yields hanging in there and not jumping makes you not want to be aggressive short when markets trade off into near-term support. But at some point I think yields can break …
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