Elazar Advisors, LLC

If the S&P 500 ETF SPY (NYSEARCA:SPY) holds above 274 we think it's headed to 280, the next level of key support/resistance.

So far we called that the market should go higher each step holding above 265, 270, and now 274. After 274 we don't see a key level until 280.

I would guess the market can get excited for the potential of a month end trade deal. That can help us get to 280 first stop and then we'll assess from there.

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We've been bullish saying that the S&P 500 ETF SPY (NYSEARCA:SPY) holding 270 was positive.

The action today on news is also very bullish.

Based on the chart and the strong bullish action we'd expect follow through nearer term to 276.



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All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and long term. The information provided is for information purposes only and can be wrong. By reading this you agree, understand and accept that you take upon yourself all respon…

The US and China are meeting this week to hopefully iron out a trade deal. There's a chance that Trump and Xi could finalize plans later this month.

Here's The Gameplan

For now the market has thrown off some short term excess so it looks ready to continue its uptrend.

It's not super clear but the slow action likely means there's upside.

Based on the slow action right now, my guess is that the market should probably hold or continue higher into the end of the month in hopes of a trade deal. Then if/when there's a trade deal later in the month we expect a pop.

From there we need to watch action.  If the market follows through in the days to follow or even holds up the next day or two it can go higher.

If you see the market doesn't pop on good news or goes down then you have a big market short building; good news - bad action. That would be an early sign of "sell the news."

There's no way to precisely predict the moves but we can watch how the market …

When our 270 S&P 500 ETF SPY (NYSEARCA:SPY) level was broken last week we wanted to see how the market responded.

A sharp break would have been a hint for further downside.

After seeing the market hold 270 nicely though I no longer expect sharp downside.

The market's still in an uptrend until proven otherwise.

While there was some negative commentary about Trump and Xi being far apart on trade, the market actually digested that news rather nicely. That's a good sign of bad news, good action and a bullish hint.

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We're speaking to numerous tech companies every quarter and helping our subscribers time and size the stocks and stock market.

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Here's what subscribers are saying,

"The market is flat for this year and I am up over 50% in my account, thanks to Chaim!"

"Chaim, You have called it better than anyone I know over the last few months."

"great work Chaim! rock star ur a rock star!”

Try wit…

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Services have been a touch slower the last couple of quarters. The company said it was due partly to an accounting change and FX.

As we go into the next few quarters there's risk that services can continue to slow for the above reasons but also because of more difficult year-ago comparisons.

I'll explain.

As we know growth rates depend on how well a company is doing this year. But growth rates also, of course, depend on the base number a year ago. That base number is used to calculate this year's growth rate.

When that year-ago number is higher it makes the current year's growth rate lower.

Let's see what Apple Services is up against versus last year as we go into the next couple of quarters.

Fiscal201820182018201820192019Calendar201720182018201820182019
DecMarJunSeptDecMar
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2EServices8471919095489981100809796Growth18.1%30.5%31.4%17.4%19.0%6.6%2 Yr Gr36.5%48.0%53.0%51.8%37.1%37.1%
The December quarter grew 19% on top of a year ago quarte…

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): had a negative preannouncement for the December quarter ahead of officially reporting. We had been below the Street ahead of that. Our earnings remain below the Street for several quarters.

Apple talked about a pick up in January due to deciding to discount phone prices in China. China and emerging markets had been a reason for weakness.

The rising dollar forced Apple first to raise prices so as not to have a revenue hit. But rising prices hurt demand so in January they benefited from reducing prices.

But look what it does to margins.


MarJunSeptDecMar
Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2EFiscal20182018201820192019Calendar20182018201820182019Gross Margins23422.020421.024084.032031.021375.0Gross Margins38.3%38.3%38.3%38.0%37.5%bp chg-0.64%-0.17%0.38%-0.42%-0.81%2yr%-1.09%0.31%0.26%-0.52%-1.45%
We like looking at the 2-year run-rate. That adds up this year's quarter with last year's same quarter. The 2-year gross margin trend drops from -.52% to -1.45% based on their gross margin guida…

We had been saying that we had tight stops. We used 270 S&P 500 SPY ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) as our level and it was hit today. There is probably follow through downside to the market now.

We said the market was extended but wanted the market to help us decide what it wants to do. Did it want to keep rising or break?

That it broke our key level we think it's saying there's risk to the downside now.


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Here's what subscribers are saying,

"The market is flat for this year and I am up over 50% in my account, thanks to Chaim!"

"Chaim, You have called it better than anyone I know over the last few months."

"great work Chaim! rock star ur a rock star!”

Try with a 14 day free trial, Click here.



All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and long term. Th…

The S&P 500 ETF SPY (NYSEARCA:SPY) is moving very slow lately. Fast or volatile markets are usually bear markets, like you remember in November and December.

But slow markets are usually bull markets.

This slow tight action is something that requires extreme patience but the market's moving up, so let it go.

But, But, But...

But, but, but it's extended, stretched, has to pull back, right? Yup. I think so too. But as I said yesterday I want to give this market room to keep rising with nearby stops.

Really, Really

You want my really, really? My really really means, ok all the article fluff, market going up, tight ranges, slow, extended, yadda, yadda, right?

Now it's time for my really really.

Really, really, I think this market is about 5-10 days from absolutely exploding to the upside. Tell me that doesn't make you smile. Tell me.

I think Trump will sign anything he can with Xi, do a victory lap and then the market can accelerate on the upside after that.  The market…

The S&P 500 ETF SPY (NYSEARCA:SPY) is still moving up. We called out that a close above 265 then 270 was bullish.

We have a slight change.

Short term the market looks a little extended to the upside which can mean there's risk at any point. We'd raise stops a little closer to the market maybe within 1-2%.

But really really I think the market can digest this big move over the next one or two weeks and then potentially climb for another month.

While earnings were very mediocre at best, strong jobs, low inflation and a Fed on hold is helping the market. Plus, remember, at the end of the month Trump meets Xi. Hopefully we get any sort of deal that will stop tariffs. No tariffs will be a big plus for the market.

So even though the market's extended we're not ready to hedge or reverse unless the market breaks saying it wants to go lower.

For now though, we'll let it keep doing what it's doing.

Tech Stock Buys

We're speaking to numerous tech companies every qu…

We pointed out recently (here and here) that an S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) close above 265 would be confirmation of follow through.

The next chart point is 270, where we are today (see chart below).

You have a mini-goldilocks scenario right now with strong jobs reported on Friday, low inflation, and a Fed who put a hard stop on rate hikes.  (14 Day Free Trial; Click here).

Given that the economy is doing fine and the stock market is well off its highs, there's room for further lift.

Here's the chart below. A close above SPY 270 is a bullish confirmation.


Tech Stock Buys

We're speaking to numerous tech companies every quarter and helping our subscribers time and size the stocks and stock market.

Try with a 14 day free trial, Click here.

Here's what subscribers are saying,

"The market is flat for this year and I am up over 50% in my account, thanks to Chaim!"

"Chaim, You have called it better than anyone I know over the last few months."

"great w…