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We have the Fed decision on Wednesday and the G-20 meeting June 28-29.

I don't expect a positive outcome from the trade meeting.

I do expect the Fed to say they expect a rate cut at their meeting in July.

The market, despite terrible macro and fundamental news is holding up incredibly well. I take that as a bullish sign despite me being fundamentally bearish.

We recommended to take off a chunk of the SMH short lower and have recommended to subscribers to start adding again. We saw the Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) news as confirmation of a "broad-based" slowdown in tech and semis. I expect further downside for semis.

Again though, despite the fundamental weakness that should be hitting the markets, the markets are holding up like a champ. I think because of coming rate cuts. ie "Don't fight the Fed."

My guess is we co…

One Year Results

Our subscription service is one year old. The results of our model portfolio are also one year old. We were up 14.2% versus the tech heavy NASDAQ, QQQs up about 5.4% in that same time. Here's the results and some thoughts.

We model the portfolio in a hedge fund fashion with longs and shorts. The longs are mostly our Strong Buys and the shorts are ETFs that help us hedge or go net short when we think there's risk in the market. We didn't short individual stocks.

Here's the results followed by some commentary.

When the QQQs dipped and bounced back we managed to keep performance steady with a gradual build.

Here's our performance by security. We included any security that impacted the portfolio by more than plus or minus 1%.

ETFs were our biggest loser which we're happy with because we mostly had our net exposure at around 20% or less. So when the ETFs lost the stocks (the longs) made money. And since the market was net-net higher in that time the shorts (the ETFs…

Sell The Trade Deal News

While everybody's excited about a trade deal resolution tariffs probably linger making a deal anti-climactic. That can have the impact of sell-the-news when it comes out.

As you know we speak a lot about watching action. So if a trade agreement announcement doens't get the market up immediately then look out, you can to get a big down move.

Jeremy Siegel (no relation) of Wharton said this week that shorts are staying out of the market despite earnings getting worse. He took that to mean that after a potential "5% pop" on a trade deal shorts will come in.

Thinking that through though we don't expect the 5% pop if tariffs linger. If tariffs continue tech and all companies don't get the relief from a trade deal. Without that relief what kicks growth back into gear? Not sure.

So think it through.

You have earnings slowing which heavily weighs on stock prices. The market should be getting hit on that news but traders don't want to be short for an announcement…

SPY ETF: Trump Good News, Market Bad Action

The news that President Trump was exonerated should have sparked a rally in the S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY). It did not.

That is a glaring bearish sign of good news - bad action. When you expect up and get sideways you know there's something else pushing the other way.

We think the market is about to start pointing lower. The trade news that Trump plans to extend tariffs even after a deal is signed with China is underappreciated. Tariffs have slowed down tech spending and the extension of those tariffs should continue to slow down tech spending.

Meanwhile, many semiconductor companies, including Micron (NASDAQ:MU) last week, are expecting a pickup in the back half. That's despite seeing a slowdown currently. The extension of tariffs will likely offset and push-out those expectations.

Technically we think we're about to point lower which will match fundamentals which have been slowing, a la Micron last week. Why do I focus on Micron? Because memory is in pretty much ever…

SPY ETF: Market Broke Our 277

We called out that if the S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) broke 277 you'd have more downside. Today's fast move through 277 could be confirmation of a down move coming in the market.

Yesterday we also called out some weak action on some decent news. The market showing weakness on good news can be a sign of a peak.

This is the first decent sign of a technical break since this up move began in late December.

We have the all important Non-Farm Payrolls report coming tomorrow morning. ADP came inline with estimates this week. Either way with the market pointing down for the first time the risk/reward is moving to the downside maybe whatever tomorrow's report brings.

Try with a 14 day free trial, Click here.

Here's what subscribers are saying,

"The market is flat for this year and I am up over 50% in my account, thanks to Chaim!"

"Chaim, You have called it better than anyone I know over the last few months."


Try with a 14 day free …

SPY ETF: More Good News, Bad Action

The S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) traded down all day despite having good news.

President Trump was reported to decide he needs a trade deal to boost the market to get reelected.

ADP reported another strong jobs report today. It was slower than the last couple of months but inline with expectations. ADP can be a precursor to the NFP report coming on Friday. NFP is a market mover.

Lastly the Fed's John Williams said that he expects rates to remain low. One negative may be that he called out a coming period of slower growth.

Frankly we see the SPY ETF having risk to turn down here. It needs to move up in the next day otherwise the gravity after a long long long move higher, is down.

Try with a 14 day free trial, Click here.

Here's what subscribers are saying,

"The market is flat for this year and I am up over 50% in my account, thanks to Chaim!"

"Chaim, You have called it better than anyone I know over the last few months."


Try with a…

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