We wanted to share some thoughts on the largest cap stock trends that affect the overall markets.
Apple stock is in a short term uptrend. China reopening is a positive.
Microsoft failed a key medium term level I pointed out yesterday (to subscribers). There's a short term uptrend but a lot here of late I have not liked. MSFT technicals don't seem to catch a bid with the market even with Bing putting Google out of business. Uh, probably not.
Amazon is in a short term downtrend. I still see risk to 80. Our earnings model shows a big drop in the back half.
Alphabet GOOG GOOGL
GOOG is in a short term downtrend. It has an important test at 90.
Tesla had a hard technically failure today at 208 on bad news that FSD causes crashes. Not good. (here)
I know the market has been programmed to believe this is an only up story. But it hasn't been.
I think my calls have been mostly up when it moves up and mostly out when it goes down. TSLA is very very much in a medium term downtrend and sitting right at a medium term resistance overhead. This has risk.
It's in a short term uptrend so that's ok but needs a nice close higher than 208 and then higher than the 200 day of 225 which I see both as resistance. It just failed 208 today on news. Down 5% is not a big move in TSLA-terms but it's not a good sign either.
Lower pricing, lower margins, FSD pushouts, Musk sold doing something else. I know this is all known but very fair reasons that this tug-of-war is in a medium term downtrend.
Please take note.
How I've been ahead of the Street on this over the years is simply following the likely coming earnings path. Well our EPS model has been dropping. When we were lone-sell-side-bulls for a few years there our EPS model was multiples above the Street. Now our EPS model is below the Street. I think the Street, like the Fed, is a little slow to react to things.
META is kind of oversold short term but still failed that big breakout. You want that breakout to hold. It is not. It's still up a ton since our Buy Rating call and since expecting a good earnings, but since the day it broke out it's now lower than the lows so the normal technical risk is 'fill the gap' which would be way too painful down to 150.
Meta stock has some work to do before it looks good again technically.
NVDA is in a short term technical uptrend. I'll preview what I expect for earnings (to subscribers) for next Wednesday's report.
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