This is very bullish....
The debt ceiling battle finally had a thaw, sounds like from both sides. This is the first time we heard anything about progress since we first started hearing again about the debt ceiling.
Bonds were up on another stubbornly high CPI number which is my formula:
Bad News + Good Action = Bullish.
That means bonds, which had been a drag on market performance can now flip to help market performance if it starts to catch a bid.
I think bonds are looking at the CME saying that today's .4 core-CPI matters less. What matters more to CME is that a mini-banking crisis will slow inflation and force (count em) three rate cuts by year end.
The market saw Powell's pause and raised him a pivot. The market's been ahead of the Fed. The Fed complained a lot that the market's got it al wrong. But guess what? It's looking very much like the market and this mini-banking crisis out of nowhere can bring inflation back down and force, yes, rate cuts by year end. Powell and Co are moving to the market and the market has the ability to get excited.
As you know I've been bullish this year and recently. I see a strong economy, GDP tracking 2.7% in Q2 is NOT a recession. Sorry folks. Fed on hold. Inflation not an issue for now. Banks that fail, depositors get bailed out anyway by the Fed and gov.
And the risk-biggie, debt ceiling just made headway for the first time today to get a raise.
That's important new news.
Good market close.
I'm very bulled up.
Stocks are net net reacting very well to being way way down on earnings reports. That's bullish.
Did I mention by the way that I'm bullish.
The market sentiment is not so bullish which is another reason to be bullish.
I think this is a good time to put risk on for a move.
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