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Some Short Term Risk: The Next Move For AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, TSLA, META, NVDA


We wanted to share our nearer term thoughts on the major market movers. Technical risk has built near term on individual stocks. I'm pretty bullish fundamentally on the market but the core stock drivers shorter term are showing some risk technically.


Apple, AAPL


The 200 day is at 147. The stock is right there. Weekly technicals are in a downtrend. So caution is in order. Plus, with the US government having some fears China may support Russia (here), if true, it's a giant risk to China-exposed companies like Apple. China opening up ending their zero-Covid policy is bullish but we need to watch geopolitics also. The technicals will guide us.


Microsoft, MSFT


Microsoft just broke its 200-day. It's in a weekly downtrend. I've been pointing out to subscribers pretty consistently this year that something's just not quite right with MSFT stock. Reviews also don't sound like Bing's ChatGPT is going to be a run-away Google killer. Azure is the company's core driver and is slowing because demand was probably pulled forward during the pandemic when everybody needed to retool and adapt to work-from-home. So I think there's some fundamental reasons why technicals don't look amazing here.


Amazon, AMZN


Amazon's stock is currently also in a downtrend with follow through risk. There's downside risk to test 85. Worse, than Microsoft, Amazon profits are more than 100% exposed to AWS (cloud) and slowing industry cloud fundamentals since the pandemic pulled-forward demand. Now there's a gap in demand. We don't have pretty EPS numbers for the back half.


Alphabet, GOOG, GOOGL


There is giant risk for GOOG technically now with a close below 90. A close below 90 (purely-technically) to us means risk to, yes, 65. This is similar and reminds me when we called out 'serious technical risk' for Tesla back in October (here) breaking 200 risk to 100. GOOG needs to survive and climb back over 90 otherwise there's too much risk. Even though Bing probably isn't the Google killer, it's spooked investors to say 'maybe something else is out there' which is hurting the technicals here.


Tesla, TSLA


This is holding up better than the market of late but risk is building with it holding below a key level 209. Here too, I think I've been ahead of the Street for the multi-year move up being bullish and getting bearish at the end of 2021 when everybody else was getting bullish. What got me bullish then is getting me bearish now. What's that? Earnings. For the first time since I've been following Tesla, my 2023 EPS numbers are below the Street. People may or may not respect it but earnings are the ultimate driver for most stocks, the market, and yes, also Tesla.


Meta, META


This stock is also in a downtrend. If it doesn't find its way back above 185 there's risk to 150 purely technically which is the 200 day. Fundamentally there's reason to be bullish with DAU's, their core metric finally stopped slowing on the last print.


Nvidia, NVDA


The stock broke out. It looks great technically. There's a ton of hype around AI. But just so you know, their core datacenter customers have been slowing. That is more than offsetting the AI hype. That means while technicals looks good, currently based on fundamentals and a revenue and earnings slowdown, I don't have valuation support for the move. But I do respect the breakout and there's follow through upside potential purely technically.


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