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Stock Market Leaning Ahead Of CPI?

I've been mostly bullish this year. Lately, I've been saying to subscribers I have a building concern if May 15th is not a low CPI print then I think there's market risk.

I lean that it can be a high CPI print (again) that hits markets. That's what I think. But we'll have to see the number. I think the first reaction will have follow through in that direction. So timing does not need to be perfect up or down.

I do find it so so so so strange how the Fed and portfolio managers are all leaning cut when inflation surprised on the upside 3 months in a row and this month has risk to be worse based on some other data out in between CPI prints.

I was bearish through 2022. I got bullish just before the start of 2023 when I saw everybody leaning for a recession versus data I used showed a strong economy.

As you know I classify myself as momentum, not contrarian. I don't try to look for divergences. But sometimes they appear which I think shifts the risk/reward. This divergence (expect cut but there's high inflation) does seem to be building.

I do think the first Fed pivot to neutral and hike will hit markets. Thereafter since the economy is strong there's a shot the market can hold. We'll get a hint based on action if / when we do have a down move. Based on action we can assess if the market will continue or hold.


Wishing you all continued success.

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