We called out publicly risk in Tesla early this year and we've been calling out risk consistently to subscribers each day in our service.
Troy Teslike keeps bringing down estimates and is well below the Street. I've been pointing this out for a few weeks now to subscribers that there's a risk to deliveries.
Adjusting my deliveries to be more inline with Troy's deliveries makes my numbers much lower and way below the Street. Along the way I have to lower my auto margins too. My EPS are well below the Street for the next two quarters.
I see technical downside to 135, next stop versus the current $181.
PS remember that until TSLA nails FSD, they are (just) an auto company. And all CEO, Elon Musk's new (high margin) stuff, he's now potentially doing a lot of it outside the company now. And car companies fetch PE-s below 10. I'm using 40x for TSLA. If it was 10x my EPS then uh....
And, oh by the way, my annual EPS estimate is closer to a third of the Street as of now! Please let me know what you think risk/reward is based on that. And I think I've had better estimates than the Street for a few years now. [Here's me downgrading TSLA about exactly at its all time high a few years ago]
Unless you have insight that FSD is near term, be very careful.
PLEASE SHARE :-)
Wishing you all continued success.
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