This appeared to subscribers yesterday.
Ding Ding, Round 2024. I've said to subscribers that this year is setting up to be a more bob-and-weave year requiring a little more finesse. We were bullish last year as you know. We expected 2023 to be up when most were bearish and said also that the 2nd half could be even stronger ("Second Half Boom Coming"). So it was. This year though is different.
The market sold off today after a huge run in 2024. January is a guide month so it makes sense not to be full throttle this month. How January goes the year tends to follow. So we use January more as a guide for the year.
Seeing today's action it tells me there's some risk that people take profits early on after a huge 2023. We are still in a short term uptrend but I'd use 468 as a key SPY level, that if we close below that to cut some shorter term exposure.
Notice more intraday volatility today? Something new. Let's see if action starts to change. Low vol is bullish, high vol is a bearish sign.
Remember this year I think we'll need to be more conscious of shorter term technicals. So breaks this year I think are more important and should be respected by shaving (not beards) positions short term to put them back at confirmation points.
We have geopolitics and I think coming-market-disappointment to a Fed that does less than the market really wants.
The fundamentals are good, GDP, jobs, earnings are all good with lower inflation and more likely rates coming down. So fundamentals are good.
But different than the start of 2023, 2024 people are "in" now and bullish and hoping now that they are in having missed 2023 and hope to have a year like 2023.
That means to me expect more the market's rooting for up but volatility this year and some fakeouts on the upside. I don't believe in rooting.
Notice also....VIX is way way way way way way way way way way way down and I think it can easily catch a bid to go higher which means markets are shakier than they appear.
You never hear me talking about VIX but I don't think VIX is aligned with Middle East, China tensions and, Fed risk, and people now bullish.
I'm bullish but I think we'll have to be buying breaks waiting for oversolds thereafter or when the market peaks higher on short term technicals after a break. That was a confusing sentence but I don't think I have a better way to say it so please read that last sentence again. Market breaks, wait for confirm then buy, something like that. Not on all the portfolio but on some.
I think people need some invested and some not invested, waiting for the right opportunity not to get run over by real breaks this year leisurely thinking 2024 is 2023.
This year is different than the last few I believe.
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