top of page

       Join our free email list to get actionable calls and more.

  • Writer's picture

Tesla Earnings Risk Post Deliveries

Updated: Apr 24, 2023

Tesla gave back Friday's gains after deliveries were reported over the weekend. Short term the chart held an uptrend but I've been pointing out that the stock keeps failing overhead resistance which is now pretty strong around the 200 day at 215.

I updated my earnings numbers to better include price cuts this quarter which brings my quarterly numbers below the Street for this quarter, next quarter and the year.

There's a good shot that the average price drop can surprise the Street to the downside and a drop in costs may not be enough to save margins.

The biggest driver to my EPS model since following Tesla has been auto gross margins. They were down about 200bp last quarter and based on the price cuts I think they can be down again, maybe more than last quarter.

This change puts my 2023 EPS at $2.53 which is well below the Street's $3.90.

When we were lone bulls on the sell-side for a few years our estimates were way above the Street. Now we're way below. In late 2021 the Street numbers caught up to our numbers and we became less bullish. Since then the stock has been in a downtrend.

And until they nail true-FSD, there's valuation compression risk as mega-bulls back off as their FSD-driven super-high margin targets keep getting pushed out.

What they accomplished is of course amazing and yes they have a lot of potential ahead of them. But we care about risk/reward. The story as it stands now is a show-me, unless you're a blind-faith believer in true-FSD, which I get, but I am not. So until true-FSD gets proven out the high valuation call based on an earnings slowdown is not a layup.

Try Elazar's Fed & Tech Trader Chat with a free trial click here (Market, Bitcoin calls, Big-cap stock calls like AAPL and TSLA, macro and commodity calls, all in one.)

All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and long term. The information provided is for information purposes only and can be wrong. By reading this you agree, understand and accept that you take upon yourself all responsibility for all of your investment decisions and to do your own work and hold Elazar Advisors, LLC, and their related parties harmless. If live trades are shown it is as an approximate snapshot at the time of publication and can change at any time in-between publications. Opinions given are at this moment and can change rapidly after this is published. If our calls are made public (outside the service) we may or may not update our opinions publicly.

142 views1 comment

Recent Posts

See All

1 Comment

Rated 0 out of 5 stars.
No ratings yet

Add a rating
Apr 19, 2023

I bought Tesla car Model-Y at $53k and now Its price got cut to $50k. I feel betrayed by this company and I think, prospectors buyers would postponed their buy thinking to wait for another price cut in the future...very negative outlook.

bottom of page