I want to walk you through another thought process.
All my work is supposed to help you gain conviction. I'm not here to convince you. I'm here to bring you a lot of data, show it to you, show you its progress, and you decide. And when you have technicals agreeing with Chaim's crazy gymnastics of simply following the simple data, jobs good, inflation slowing, technicals up, you can also make it your own to feel good about it.
As I said, I want to talk you through another thought process.
For me this is fun but this is one of my life-strengths in this business. Listening and understanding what people say.
Powell on Wednesday... You know I was bullish ahead of that and the market jumped Wed and Thursday on that.
If you were in our chat you bought at the low Fed-Wednesday when I heard the first few breaths out of Powell sounded bullish to me.
Friday stole a little back. Bull markets are allowed to have down days.
But back to my new thought process for you.
Let's think back. You are Powell. You hold the keys to the fate of every working man and woman alive in the United States and maybe the world and their families, and their dog (or cat or hamster). You're Powell but you're also a human being. You don't want to hurt all these people. You generally want people to be happy, have a job, have food on the table, etc.
Remember you're Powell. Do you remember his demeanor on Wednesday? Do you remember? I do. It was much more comfortable than it was in any of the last meetings.
In previous meetings you could see his discomfort in having to tell everybody he may cause a recession.
But in Wednesday's meeting he was comfortable that his job is now going to hurt fewer people. He's not going to cause a recession and he's not going to put people out of work. He's happy because the economy's surprisingly strong.
I think he knew something about Friday's jobs number when he was so comfortable, happy-go-lucky Powell on Wednesday.
Bullish.
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